Top Forex Brokers – Forex Weekly news and analysis For December 16 – 22, 2024
The FOMC Statement
The FOMC meeting is expected to deliver a third consecutive 25 bps rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.25%-4.50%. The USDollar is in a long-term bullish trend, bouncing off the trendline to reach the 61.8 Fibonacci resistance level. With the MA50 crossing above the MA200, forming a Golden Cross, two scenarios are now possible.
USDollar
•A breakout above 107.000 could trigger a rise to 108.100.
•A rebound from resistance and a trendline break may lead to a correction toward 105.700.
The BOJ Statement
The BOJ’s meeting is expected to maintain a -0.1% rate and YCC strategy, despite rising inflation—Tokyo’s core CPI hit 2.2% in November—and speculation about policy shifts. Japan’s uneven recovery, with 1.8% GDP growth in Q3 and a 2.4% decline in household spending, makes a rate hike unlikely. Meanwhile, USDJPY is testing the upper boundary of a bullish flag and MA200, with DeMarker exiting oversold territory.
USDJPY
•A break above the trendline at 152.700 could push the price up to 154.700.
•A rebound and fall below 152.000 and the MA200 may trigger a decline toward 149.500.
The BOE Monetary Policy Summary
The BoE is expected to hold the Bank Rate at 4.75% amid rising inflation, now at 2.3%, and wage growth pressures. Governor Bailey emphasized the need to anchor inflation sustainably at 2% while balancing risks from energy costs and labor dynamics. GBPUSD has formed a bearish flag near the 61.8 Fibonacci level, with the CCI signaling a potential decline.
GBPUSD
•A break below the flag boundary at 1.2730 and FRAMA could push the price down to 1.2530.
•A rebound from support may drive the price back to 1.2860 and potentially to 1.3000.
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