Key Forex Events This Week: September 29 – October 5, 2025
The forex market is profoundly influenced by economic indicators, central bank announcements, and geopolitical developments that can induce substantial volatility in currency pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, and USD/CAD. For the week of September 29 to October 5, 2025, traders should monitor pivotal events including Chinese PMI data, the RBA’s interest rate decision, Eurozone inflation figures, US labor market reports culminating in Non-Farm Payrolls, and various regional PMIs. These could affect monetary policy outlooks and risk sentiment globally. This article compiles the most significant forex events, organized by day, with UTC timings, forecasts, previous values, and potential impacts. Data is sourced from reputable economic calendars to support informed trading decisions. Note that forecasts are consensus estimates and may vary; liquidity may be thinner due to any holidays or end-of-quarter adjustments.
Monday, September 29, 2025
The week starts with speeches from central bankers and preliminary inflation data, potentially influencing EUR and USD pairs.
| Time (UTC) | Country/Currency | Event Name | Importance | Forecast | Previous | Potential Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | ESP/EUR | CPI (YoY) (Sep) | High | 3.1% | 2.7% | Higher inflation could bolster EUR via ECB tightening expectations. |
| 09:00 | GER/EUR | Bundesbank President Nagel Speech | High | N/A | N/A | Hawkish comments may strengthen EUR; dovish tones could weaken it. |
| 11:30 | USD | Fed Waller Speech | High | N/A | N/A | Insights on Fed policy could drive USD volatility. |
| 14:00 | USD | Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Aug) | Medium | 0.2% | -0.4% | Stronger data supports USD on housing recovery signals. |
Tuesday, September 30, 2025
Focus on Asian data with Chinese PMIs and the RBA decision, impacting commodity currencies.
| Time (UTC) | Country/Currency | Event Name | Importance | Forecast | Previous | Potential Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | CNY | Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | High | N/A | 49.4 | Above 50 boosts CNY and AUD; below pressures risk assets. |
| 01:30 | CNY | Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | High | N/A | 50.3 | Growth signals support CNY; contraction weakens it. |
| 01:45 | CNY | Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | High | N/A | 50.5 | Positive surprise lifts AUD/NZD via China demand. |
| 01:45 | CNY | Caixin Services PMI (Sep) | High | N/A | 53.0 | Strong services data bolsters CNY sentiment. |
| 04:30 | AUD | RBA Interest Rate Decision | High | 3.60% | 3.60% | Hold expected; hawkish stance strengthens AUD. |
| 05:30 | AUD | RBA Press Conference | High | N/A | N/A | Policy hints could trigger AUD volatility. |
| 06:00 | GER/EUR | Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) | Medium | N/A | -1.5% | Better-than-expected lifts EUR on consumer strength. |
| 06:00 | GBP | GDP (QoQ) (Q2 Final) | High | N/A | N/A | Upward revision supports GBP via BoE outlook. |
Wednesday, October 1, 2025
Inflation and employment data dominate, with eyes on Eurozone CPI and US manufacturing.
| Time (UTC) | Country/Currency | Event Name | Importance | Forecast | Previous | Potential Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:30 | INR | RBI Interest Rate Decision | Medium | 5.5% | 5.5% | No change expected; surprises could move INR. |
| 09:00 | EUR | CPI (YoY) Flash (Sep) | High | 2.2% | 2.0% | Higher reading pressures EUR higher on ECB bets. |
| 09:00 | EUR | Core CPI (YoY) Flash (Sep) | High | 2.3% | 2.3% | Sticky core inflation supports EUR. |
| 12:15 | USD | ADP Employment Change (Sep) | High | 40K | -3K | Previews NFP; strong data bolsters USD. |
| 13:45 | USD | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Sep) | High | 52.0 | 53.0 | Above 50 strengthens USD on growth cues. |
| 14:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | High | 49.0 | 48.7 | Expansion signals lift USD; contraction weakens it. |
| 23:00 | KRW | Inflation Rate (YoY) (Sep) | Medium | 1.8% | 2.0% | Lower inflation may pressure KRW. |
Thursday, October 2, 2025
Trade balances and unemployment figures could sway AUD and EUR, with US claims in focus.
| Time (UTC) | Country/Currency | Event Name | Importance | Forecast | Previous | Potential Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | AUD | Balance of Trade (Aug) | Medium | A$7.1B | A$6.2B | Larger surplus supports AUD. |
| 07:00 | ESP/EUR | Unemployment Change (Sep) | Medium | 10.1K | 15.4K | Lower change bolsters EUR. |
| 09:00 | EUR | Unemployment Rate (Aug) | Medium | 6.2% | 6.2% | Stable rate maintains EUR stability. |
| 11:30 | USD | Challenger Job Cuts (Sep) | Medium | N/A | 150K | Higher cuts may weaken USD sentiment. |
| 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Week) | Medium | N/A | N/A | Lower claims reinforce USD strength ahead of NFP. |
Friday, October 3, 2025
The week’s highlight with US NFP and Eurozone PMIs, likely causing major USD swings.
| Time (UTC) | Country/Currency | Event Name | Importance | Forecast | Previous | Potential Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TRY | Inflation Rate (YoY) (Sep) | Medium | 32.4% | 32.5% | Declining inflation could stabilize TRY. |
| 09:00 | EUR | HCOB Composite PMI Final (Sep) | High | 51.2 | 51.2 | Confirmation of growth supports EUR. |
| 09:00 | EUR | HCOB Services PMI Final (Sep) | High | 51.4 | 51.4 | Strong services data lifts EUR. |
| 12:30 | USD | Non-Farm Payrolls (Sep) | High | N/A | 73K | Beat strengthens USD; miss boosts rate cut odds. |
| 12:30 | USD | Unemployment Rate (Sep) | High | N/A | 4.2% | Lower rate bolsters USD. |
| 12:30 | USD | Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep) | High | N/A | N/A | Wage growth impacts inflation views, affecting USD. |
Saturday, October 4 & Sunday, October 5, 2025
No major events scheduled. Markets closed; digest Friday’s NFP for Monday’s open.
In summary, the US Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday stands out as a potential market mover, alongside early-week Asian data and European inflation. With quarter-end flows possible, volatility may spike—implement robust risk management.
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