Dollar under watch as jobs and inflation data arrive
This week’s key risk events center on US labor market and inflation data. Both will give a clearer sense of how strong hiring is and whether inflation pressures are easing. They’ll shape expectations for the Fed and influence the USD, gold, and global yields.
Wednesday, December 3
Private-sector employment is expected to rise by 17K, down from 42K, signaling a cooling job market ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls. A stronger reading would point to firmer labor conditions, likely lifting the dollar and yields. A weaker one would confirm easing pressures, weighing on the dollar and supporting gold.
XAUUSD broke through the symmetrical triangle and is rising rapidly. There is an imbalance at the top, but the price crossed the upper Bollinger band, which makes a correction possible before further growth.
Friday, December 5
Core PCE (m/m) is forecast at 0.2%, the same as last month. A firmer read, particularly if services remain strong, would encourage the Fed to delay easing, boosting the dollar and yields. A softer print would signal cooling inflation, revive rate-cut bets, and lift gold and stocks.
USDCHF has bounced off the global trendline and is now testing the AMA. The %R has moved out of the overbought zone, supporting the possibility of a pullback.
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