Top Forex Brokers – Forex Weekly news and analysis For October 28, – November 03, 2024
BOJ Monetary Policy Statement
The Bank of Japan’s upcoming meeting is expected to keep interest rates at 0.25%, influenced by stable inflation at 2.5% and political considerations around the October 27 elections. Any updates on economic growth and inflation forecasts will be critical, as concerns about global growth could lower the chances of a near-term rate hike.
Analysts remain divided, with most not expecting a rate hike until March. Governor Ueda’s post-meeting comments on October 31 will provide further clues. Optimism about wage growth could prompt quicker action, but slow wage growth and political uncertainties pose challenges for future BoJ decisions.
The US Nonfarm Payroll Report
According to ADP data, US private sector employment rose by 143k jobs in September, surpassing the forecast of 120k, with the previous value revised to 103k. The dollar gained strength, reflecting market stability despite recent challenges and geopolitical risks.
These figures precede a key labor market report crucial for the Fed amid slowing consumer price growth, hinting at optimistic economic forecasts.
If the data is positive again, the dollar is likely to strengthen, with potential growth continuing at least to the 105.915 level. This marks the boundary of global consolidation on the W1 timeframe.
US30 consolidates within a symmetrical triangle and faces the 20300 resistance. The Momentum crosses the 100-line, giving a potential sign of a rise.
•A rise above 20300 may continue the hike to the 20500 resistance;
•Rebound from the 20300 can trigger a decline to 20100 at the 38.2 Fibonacci and even 19800 level.
USDCAD is on the rise and tests the crucial 1.3850 resistance area. The RSI shows an overbought condition for the asset, putting pressure on the bulls.
•If USDCAD breaks above the 1.3850, it may rise to 1.4000;
•If the price fails to surpass the resistance, it may fall to the golden Fibonacci pocket at 1.3750.
In the daily timeframe, XBRUSD navigates within a local trendline. The price is sandwiched between the 75.60 resistance and the 73.50 support.
•If the bulls push the price above the 75.60 resistance, the silver may rise to 80.80 and the golden Fibonacci ratio;
•A break below the trend line could bring XBRUSD back to 69.50 support.
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