Top Forex Brokers – Forex Weekly news and analysis For January 13 – 19, 2025
The US CPI
Inflation continues to shape market sentiment, with November’s CPI rising 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, staying above the Fed’s 2% target. Housing remains the main driver, while energy prices send mixed signals — gasoline and natural gas rose, but electricity costs declined.
Traders are now focused on the December CPI report, due January 15, which could influence the Fed’s next steps. Softer inflation may prompt further rate cuts and boost stocks, while persistent inflation could delay cuts and keep bond yields high. Markets remain highly reactive to economic data, making flexibility crucial for traders.
The USDollar is forming a rising wedge pattern, and the price is approaching the 161.8 Fibonacci resistance. Despite the long-term growth, a divergence has formed on the MFI.
•A break above the 109.800 resistance and the nearest fractal could push the USDollar toward its 2022 high;
•A rebound from resistance and a break below the lower trendline would signal a correction to 106.100.
Gold is showing a good recovery. The price has already overcome the 2662 level and is now testing the 2679 resistance level.
•Breaking and holding above the 2679 resistance level could trigger further growth;
•If the price fails to break the resistance level, it may rebound to the support at 2662.
The asset broke out of the accumulation phase downward and continued its decline. After testing the 1.0261 resistance level, the price failed to break through and bounced back.
•A break below the 1.0261 resistance level could push the price down to 1.0087;
•If the level holds, a recovery toward 1.0417 is likely.
Buying pressure is fading on the Daily timeframe, with the price dropping below the EMA-50 and testing the 5880 support level.
•If the 5880 support holds, the price may recover to 5955 to retest the EMA-50.
•If the support breaks, the decline could extend toward the EMA-100, with the next support at 5810.
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